Benefits of site-specific hazard analysis for seismic design in New Zealand: Revisited
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.1705Abstract
This paper revisits the sentiments expressed in a 2015 paper published by the author regarding site-specific seismic hazard analysis in New Zealand (NZ) [1]. While many of the general principles expressed remain the same, the completion of the 2022 NZ National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM), and accompanying Draft Technical Specification TS1170.5:2024 have significantly altered how such analyses are performed in NZ, and the incremental value that they can provide beyond a code-based approach. This paper identifies instances where site-specific analyses remain valuable (and where they do not), where they will likely depart from the ‘baseline’ 2022 NZ NSHM (and TS1170.5:2024) results to a practically significant degree, and past practices for seismic source and ground-motion modelling choices which are now considered unviable. Lastly, challenges for practitioners and researchers are briefly addressed in order to further advance the practice of site-specific seismic hazard analysis over the next decade.
References
Bradley BA (2015). “Benefits of site-specific hazard analyses for seismic design in New Zealand”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 48(2): 92–99. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.48.2.92-99
Baker J, Bradley B and Stafford P (2021). Seismic Hazard and Risk Analysis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, ISBN 978-1-108-42505-6. https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/seismic-hazard-and-risk-analysis/177B4BA01FC2600AA53A22B27598A06C
Standards New Zealand (2004). “NZS 1170.5:2004 Structural Design Actions, Part 5: Earthquake Actions - New Zealand”. Wellington, New Zealand, 82pp.
Gerstenberger MC, Bora S, Bradley BA, DiCaprio C, Kaiser A, Manea EF, Nicol A, Rollins C, Stirling MW, Thingbaijam KKS, Van Dissen RJ, Abbott ER, Atkinson GM, Chamberlain C, Christophersen A, Clark K, Coffey GL, de la Torre CA, Ellis SM, Fraser J, Graham K, Griffin J, Hamling IJ, Hill MP, Howell A, Hulsey A, Hutchinson J, Iturrieta P, Johnson KM, Jurgens VO, Kirkman R, Langridge RM, Lee RL, Litchfield NJ, Maurer J, Milner KR, Rastin S, Rattenbury MS, Rhoades DA, Ristau J, Schorlemmer D, Seebeck H, Shaw BE, Stafford PJ, Stolte AC, Townend J, Villamor P, Wallace LM, Weatherill G, Williams CA and Wotherspoon LM (2024). “The 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model: Process, Overview, and Results”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1): 7–36. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230182
Standards New Zealand (2024). “Draft Technical Specification for ’Structural design actions - Part 5: Earthquake actions - New Zealand’ (TS1170.5)”. https://www.mbie.govt.nz/about/news/technical-specification-for-the-design-of-new-buildings-out-for-public-comment
Stirling M, McVerry G and Berryman K (2002). “A new seismic hazard model for New Zealand”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(5): 1878–1903. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120010156
Standards New Zealand (2004). “NZS1170.5:2004 Structural Design Actions, Part 5: Earthquake Actions - New Zealand - Commentary”. Wellington, New Zealand, 86pp.
United States Geologic Survey (2024). “Introduction to the National Seismic Hazard Maps”. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/science/introduction-national-seismic-hazard-maps
Gerstenberger MC, Van Dissen R, Rollins C, DiCaprio C, Thingbaijim KKS, Bora S, Chamberlain C, Christophersen A, Coffey GL, Ellis SM, Iturrieta P, Johnson KM, Litchfield NJ, Nicol A, Milner KR, Rastin SJ, Rhoades D, Seebeck H, Shaw BE, Stirling MW, Wallace L, Allen TI, Bradley BA, Charlton D, Clark KJ, Fraser J, Griffin J, Hamling IJ, Howell A, Hudson-Doyle E, Hulsey A, Jurgens VO, Kaiser AE, Kirkman R, Langridge RM, Maurer J, Rattenbury MS, Ristau J, Schorlemmer D, Townend J, Villamor P and Williams C (2024). “The Seismicity Rate Model for the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1): 182–216. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230165
Bradley BA, Bora SS, Lee RL, Manea EF, Gerstenberger MC, Stafford PJ, Atkinson GM, Weatherill G, Hutchinson J, de la Torre CA, Hulsey AM and Kaiser AE (2024). “The Ground-Motion Characterization Model for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1): 329–349. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230170
DiCaprio CJ, Chamberlain CB, Bora SS, Bradley BA, Gerstenberger MC, Hulsey AM, Iturrieta P, Pagani M and Simionato M (2024). “Calculation of National Seismic Hazard Models with Large Logic Trees: Application to the NZ NSHM 2022”. Seismological Research Letters, 95(1): 125–134. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230226
McVerry G (2003). “From hazard maps to code spectra for New Zealand”. 2003 Pacific Conference on Earthquake Engineering: 13–15 February, Christchurch, New Zealand, 9pp.
ASCE (2022). “ASCE/SEI 7-22 Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and Other Structures”.
Weatherill G and Lilienkamp H (2024). “Capturing Directivity in Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis for New Zealand: Challenges, Implications, and a Machine Learning Approach for Implementation”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1): 373–398. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230161
Donahue J, Stewart J, Gregor N and Bozorgnia Y (2019). “Ground-Motion Directivity Modeling for Seismic Hazard Applications”. Technical Report PEER Report 2019/03.
Bayless JR, Somerville P and Skarlatoudis AA (2020). “A Rupture Directivity Adjustment Model Applicable to the NGA-West2 Ground Motion Models and Complex Fault Geometries”. Technical Report USGS Final Technical Report: USGS Award G18AP00092.
Stirling M, McVerry G, Gerstenberger M, Litchfield N, Van Dissen R, Berryman K, Barnes P, Wallace L, Villamor P, Langridge R, Lamarche G, Nodder S, Reyners M, Bradley B, Rhoades D, Smith W, Nicol A, Pettinga J, Clark K and Jacobs K (2012). “National Seismic Hazard Model for New Zealand: 2010 Update”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4): 1514–1542. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120110170
SESOC (2024). “Nonlinear Response History Analysis Design Guide”. Technical Report, Structural Engineering Society New Zealand.
Boore D, Watson-Lamprey J and Abrahamson N (2006). “Orientation-independent measures of ground motion”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(4A): 1502–1511. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120050209
Atkinson GM (2024). “Backbone Ground-Motion Models for Crustal, Interface, and Slab Earthquakes in New Zealand from Equivalent Point-Source Concepts”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1): 350–372. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120230144
Abrahamson N and Silva W (2008). “Summary of the Abrahamson & Silva NGA ground motion relations”. Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 67–97.
Chiou B and Youngs R (2008). “An NGA Model for the average horizontal component of peak ground motion and response spectra”. Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 173–215.
Abrahamson N, Atkinson G, Boore D, Bozorgnia Y, Campbell K, Chiou B, Idriss I, Silva W and Youngs R (2008). “Comparisons of the NGA ground-motion relations”. Earthquake Spectra, 24(1): 45–66.
Lee R, Cubrinovski M and Bradley B (2024). “Site classification methodology for TS 1170.5 design spectra”. Bulletin of New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 58(1): 11-39. https://doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.1686
Thomson EM, Bradley BA and Lee RL (2020). “Methodology and computational implementation of a New Zealand Velocity Model (NZVM2.0) for broadband ground motion simulation”. New Zealand Journal of Geology and Geophysics, 63(1): 110–127. https://doi.org/10.1080/00288306.2019.1636830
Wotherspoon LM, Kaiser AE, Stolte AC and Manea EF (2024). “Development of the Site Characterization Database for the 2022 New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model”. Seismological Research Letters, 95(1): 214–225. https://doi. org/10.1785/0220230219
Chiou BSJ and Youngs RR (2014). “Update of the Chiou and Youngs NGA Model for the Average Horizontal Component of Peak Ground Motion and Response Spectra”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1117–1153. https://doi.org/10.1193/ 072813EQS219M
Bradley BA, Wotherspoon L and Kaiser A (2017). “Ground motion and site effect observations in the Wellington region from the 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand earthquake”. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engi-neering, 50(2): 94–105.
Bradley BA, Razafindrakoto HNT and Polak V (2017). “Ground-Motion Observations from the 14 November 2016 Mw7.8 Kaikoura, New Zealand, Earthquake and Insights from Broadband Simulations”. Seismological Research Letters, 88(3): 740–756. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220160225
Bradley BA and Cubrinovski M (2011). “Near-source Strong Ground Motions Observed in the 22 February 2011 Christchurch Earthquake”. Seismological Research Letters, 82(6): 853–865. https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.82.6.853
Bradley BA (2012). “Strong ground motion characteristics observed in the 4 September 2010 Darfield, New Zealand earthquake”. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 42: 32–46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2012.06.004
Gerstenberger M, McVerry G, Rhoades D and Stirling M (2014). “Seismic Hazard Modeling for the Recovery of Christchurch”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1): 17–29. https://doi.org/10.1193/021913eqs037m
Abbott E, Horspool N, Gerstenberger M, Huso R, Van Houtte C, McVerry G and Canessa S (2020). “Challenges and opportunities in New Zealand seismic hazard and risk modeling using OpenQuake”. Earthquake Spectra, 36(1_suppl): 210–225. https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020966338
Field EH, Milner KR, Hardebeck JL, Page MT, van der Elst N, Jordan TH, Michael AJ, Shaw BE and Werner MJ (2017). “A Spatiotemporal Clustering Model for the Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3-ETAS): Toward an Operational Earthquake Forecast”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(3): 1049–1081. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120160173
Shahi SK and Baker JW (2014). “NGA-West2 Models for Ground Motion Directionality”. Earthquake Spectra, 30(3): 1285–1300. https://doi.org/10.1193/040913EQS097M
Durante MG, Stewart JP, Brandenberg SJ and Mylonakis G (2022). “Simplified solution for seismic earth pressures exerted on flexible walls”. Earthquake Spectra, 38(3): 1872–1892. https://doi.org/10.1177/87552930221083326
Rathje E, Wang Y, Stafford P, Antonakos G and Saygili G (2013). “Probabilistic assessment of the seismic performance of earth slopes”. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering: 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-013-9485-9
Bray JD and Macedo J (2017). “6th Ishihara lecture: Simplified procedure for estimating liquefaction-induced building settlement”. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 102(Supplement C): 215–231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. soildyn.2017.08.026
AS/NZS11700 (2002). “Structural design actions, Part 0: General Principles”. Technical Report, Standards Australia.
Stewart J, Afshari K and Hashash Y (2014). “Guidelines for performing hazard-consistent one-dimensional ground response analysis for ground motion prediction”. Technical Report PEER Report no. 2014/16, Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA.
Rodriguez-Marek A, Rathje EM, Bommer JJ, Scherbaum F and Stafford PJ (2014). “Application of Single-Station Sigma and Site-Response Characterization in a Probabilistic Seismic-Hazard Analysis for a New Nuclear Site”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 104(4): 1601–1619. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120130196
Rodriguez-Marek A, Bommer JJ, Youngs RR, Crespo MJ, Stafford PJ and Bahrampouri M (2021). “Capturing epistemic uncertainty in site response”. Earthquake Spectra, 37(2): 921–936. https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293020970975
Kaklamanos J, Bradley BA, Thompson EM and Baise LG (2013). “Critical Parameters Affecting Bias and Variability in Site-Response Analyses Using KiK-net Downhole Array Data”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(3): 1733–1749. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120120166
Thompson EM, Baise LG, Tanaka Y and Kayen RE (2012). “A taxonomy of site response complexity”. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 41(0): 32–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soildyn.2012.04.005
Afshari K and Stewart JP (2019). “Insights from California Vertical Arrays on the Effectiveness of Ground Response Analysis with Alternative Damping ModelsInsights from California Vertical Arrays on the Effectiveness of GRA with Alternative Damping Models”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 109(4): 1250–1264. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120180292
Anderson J and Brune J (1999). “Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis without the ergodic assumption”. Seismological Research Letters, 70(1): 19–28. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.70.1.19
Bommer J and Abrahamson N (2006). “Why do modern probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses often lead to increased hazard estimates?” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(6): 1967–1977. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120060043
Lavrentiadis G, Abrahamson NA, Nicolas KM, Bozorgnia Y, Goulet CA, Babicˇ A, Macedo J, Dolšek M, Gregor N, Kottke AR, Lacour M, Liu C, Meng X, Phung VB, Sung CH and Walling M (2022). “Overview and introduction to development of non-ergodic earthquake ground-motion models”. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-022-01485-x
Christophersen A and Gerstenberger MC (2024). “Expert Judgment in the 2022 Aotearoa New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model”. 95(1): 113–124. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220230250
Pagani M, Monelli D, Weatherill G, Danciu L, Crowley H, Silva V, Henshaw P, Butler L, Nastasi M, Panzeri L, Simionato M and Vigano D (2014). “OpenQuake Engine: An Open Hazard (and Risk) Software for the Global Earthquake Model”. Seismological Research Letters, 85(3). https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130087
Field EH and Page MT (2011). “Estimating Earthquake-Rupture Rates on a Fault or Fault System”. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(1): 79–92. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120100004